Capital-Markets

A bilingual research brief for When Winning Streaks Mislead: Regime Dependence, Tail Deferral, and Survivorship Bias in Retail Fixed Coupon Notes — SSRN Working Paper No. 7106058, Sinclair Huang, 2026. Why multi-year profit streaks in autocallable structured notes reveal far less than intuition suggests. What the paper studies. A retail Fixed Coupon Note (FCN) is, in economic substance, a short position in a worst-of down-and-in put sold by the investor. The paper asks what a long no-assignment streak reveals about future tail risk. It uses streak illusion in a statistical, not psychometric, sense: regime-dependent tail deferral can generate a benign record that says little about resilience after a state change. The study does not observe investor beliefs and does not estimate behavioral bias — the term names an information-content problem, not a measured psychological effect. ...

A new working paper suggests that markets often reward narrative clarity more than scientific spillovers. By Po-Sung(Sinclair) Huang We like to think capital markets reward great science. In biopharma, that is only partly true. In a new working paper, I compare market capitalisation with forward citations — a proxy for how much others are actually using a firm’s research. What emerges is not a smooth relationship, but a striking pricing gap. ...