Everyone Wants the Next AI Stock. I’m Looking for the Next Physical Bottleneck.

From “What’s the next AI stock?” to “Where’s the next bottleneck, who gets paid, and what would prove us wrong?” Sinclair Huang This essay helps answer four practical questions:- Which AI themes are real constraints rather than just attractive stories? - Who can capture gross margin when a constraint binds? - How long might the bottleneck last before capacity, substitution, or efficiency relieves it? - What evidence would prove the thesis wrong? ...

June 10, 2026

AI Infrastructure Is Not One Trade

Product exposure, process-control exposure, and the physical bottlenecks behind the AI capex wave AI Infrastructure Notes | Part 3 Sinclair Huang A reader recently left a comment on my ABF substrate piece that stayed with me. His point was simple: CoWoS and HBM get most of the attention, but substrate materials often sit below the level where many equity models even begin. I think that observation captures a broader problem in AI infrastructure analysis. ...

May 23, 2026