Investing

A bilingual research brief for When Winning Streaks Mislead: Regime Dependence, Tail Deferral, and Survivorship Bias in Retail Fixed Coupon Notes — SSRN Working Paper No. 7106058, Sinclair Huang, 2026. Why multi-year profit streaks in autocallable structured notes reveal far less than intuition suggests. What the paper studies. A retail Fixed Coupon Note (FCN) is, in economic substance, a short position in a worst-of down-and-in put sold by the investor. The paper asks what a long no-assignment streak reveals about future tail risk. It uses streak illusion in a statistical, not psychometric, sense: regime-dependent tail deferral can generate a benign record that says little about resilience after a state change. The study does not observe investor beliefs and does not estimate behavioral bias — the term names an information-content problem, not a measured psychological effect. ...

AI will be everywhere. The harder question is who still earns a margin when intelligence gets cheap. By Sinclair I have watched AI move from conversation and search into data processing, automation, vehicles, robots, industrial tools, and factories. That makes me sceptical of debates that begin with whether AI demand will exist. Much of the eventual demand will not look like a deliberate purchase of “AI.” Intelligence will be built into a product or workflow, and the customer will pay for the outcome. ...